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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|