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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.